AMERICA IN 2050

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra

Although many people may roll their eyes when I say this, the city of Omaha, Nebraska has a lot going for it.  In the midst of the corn, the beef, the College World Series, the Berkshire Hathaway money, and the Union Pacific railroad, it’s also the home of the Free Speech Society.

The group is open to everyone, and seeks to facilitate respectful, open dialogue around the most important issues of the day.  It meets once a month, usually with a speaker who addresses a topic and leaves time for a lively discussion.   The coffee and doughnuts aren’t bad either.

And for June of 2023, the topic for discussion is thought-provoking:  Will we recognize the U.S. in 25 years?

Several questions were suggested by the Society’s leadership: 

• How will America’s ethnic makeup impact future policy?

• What will be America’s standing in the world?

• How might AI impact how we live and work?

• Will the U.S. be fiscally sound?

• What will be the state of national and regional politics?

• What will healthcare look like?

• What will immigration look like?

At the risk of pre-empting any discussion, and for the benefit of anyone who might not be able to attend, let me give my thoughts on each.

First, fair warning: I’ve always been someone who’s lived by the dictum “hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”  So let’s look at how these topics will play out in America, year 2050, from both a best case and worst case scenario.

HOW WILL AMERICA’S ETHNIC MAKE-UP IMPACT FUTURE POLICY?

Best Case:   Through focused programs in financing and employment, the gap in income and net worth between white Americans and non-white Americans has narrowed significantly from its 2023 level.  A focus on advancing educational opportunities in poor neighborhoods has resulted in improved educational performance.  Numerous colleges have Black or Hispanic leadership, and government/private partnerships have enhanced opportunities for trade skills that have significantly improved unemployment.

As predicted, a majority of Americans now identify as Black, Asian, or Hispanic.  More and more corporate leadership roles have been filled by those once considered a “minority,” serving as role models for young people.  Public education has played a vital role in this process, where schools that were predominantly white just thirty years ago now have a majority of non-white enrollees.  A national focus on Civics and history now engages students from all background in participatory citizenship.

Although the playing field with regard to educational and employment opportunities is still far from level, much progress has been made.

Worst Case:  Since the Keep America American (KAA) party broke-off from the Republican party in 2025, national policies have been established to prohibit discussion of issues such as social justice, slavery, and references to Jim Crow and the Civil Rights movement.  Students are taught that any areas of inequality have been the direct result of now-illegal Affirmative Action programs.  This has caused heightened tensions at many schools, especially where teachers have been fired for pointing out that the rising income gap between white and non-white Americans, as well as reduced funding at inner city schools, has led to reduced college acceptances for non-white students.  Teachers are required to teach that racial prejudice no longer exists, equal opportunities are available for everyone, and any difference in income is solely the result of a lack of work ethic.  Yet despite this, society appears to be unraveling more and more along racial lines.

WHAT WILL BE AMERICA’S STANDING IN THE WORLD?

Best case:  Following the 2024 withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, and the subsequent costs of post-war rebuilding, the world has been forced to take a hard look at its future.  America has been a leader in this effort. 

Over the last 25 years, the world has gradually grown to trust the United States once again.  Unlike earlier in the 21^st Century, when America’s foreign policy would swing wildly to the left or right depending on which party was in power, thus leaving the world guessing as to what (if anything) the country really stood for, America’s Republican and Democratic parties have now embraced similar values:  democracy, open trade, free elections, human rights, and respect for law.  Although some American foreign aid is still directed toward military funding, a greater amount is distributed toward the goal of promoting international economic and humanitarian stability, particularly in South and Central America.  This has resulted in, among other things, a reduction in undocumented immigration (see below).

The U.S. has taken a lead in focusing the United Nations on problem solving.  International efforts to address climate change, displaced persons, and free trade have been led by America.  Although a few regressive regimes remain, including Hungary under its 87-year-old dictator Victor Orban, nearly every other country agrees the world is a safer and more stable place, compared to 25 years ago, thanks in no small part to American leadership.

Perhaps most significantly, the conviction 25 years ago of former President Donald Trump for compromising highly classified military intelligence reassured our allies we took the security of the world seriously.

Worst case:  Since the American withdrawal from NATO and the United Nations, the world has become a much more dangerous place.  Following NATO’s devolution, and the subsequent Russian victories in Ukraine, Moldovia, and the Baltic states, the world has struggled to find super-power leadership.  Despite grave reservations, many nations have felt they have no choice but work with China in this regard.

With the KAA party firmly in power, it appears unlikely that the U.S. will re-engage in meaningful efforts to address these issues, other than building up its own military forces.  By now, the country has withdrawn from virtually every international commission/agency, and actively discouraged its citizens from participating, as well.  The recent arrest at Dulles International Airport of three attendees returning from the U.N. Climate Study Conference is deeply concerning.

The rising influence of the RIC coalition (Russia-Iran-China), especially through their heavy-handed conflict resolution process, is particularly worrisome.  Unfortunately, with America’s influence effectively sidelined, there’s little the world can do.  This has been worsening since the round of not-guilty verdicts in the Donald Trump trials 25 years ago, which sent trust in America plummeting throughout the world.

HOW MIGHT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) IMPACT HOW WE LIVE AND WORK?

Best case:  Thanks to the work of America’s AI oversight committee, the dire predictions of AI causing human extinction have not been fulfilled.  The committee, a public-private partnership of representatives from business and government, approve research and monitor AI development.  So far, their “first, do no harm” pledge has been honored.  Although AI has shifted some jobs, it has created far more.

It’s difficult to find an aspect of American life that hasn’t been impacted.  Energy, health care, education, transportation—all have been revolutionized through AI.  Our military has maintained its strength by matching research with the rest of the world, enabling our armed forces to be more fully prepared to recognize both cyberattacks and assaults by conventional forces.

Worst case:  As companies use AI to primarily displace workers, seeking short-term profits over long-term growth, unemployment has skyrocketed. The recent riots at the Tesla factory on the old Disneyworld campus in Florida, when Tesla announced a 70% reduction in its workforce, may only be the first such event as industry cuts back further on human employees.

The KAA-sponsored citizen surveillance program has produced an AI controlled network that effectively monitors all activity within our borders, and issues AI-produced arrest warrants if any irregularity occurs.  Despite the claims that thousands of innocent citizens have been detained through overly-aggressive AI algorithms, the KAA insists the net benefit of the program is positive. 

WILL THE U.S. BE FISCALLY SOUND?

Best case:  Much has changed since the President’s landmark “Shape Up or Ship Out” economic speech 20 years ago.  Tax revenues have expanded and spending has been cut, with enough change occurring to earn both cheers and boos from nearly everyone.  But one thing is clear—America now has a balanced budget and is no longer encumbered by debt.

Taxation rates, which had become more and more focused on the middle class since 1980, have been reimposed at 1950s levels.  America entered into the International Corporate Tax agreement, which set a uniform baseline for corporate taxes, thus removing incentives for developed countries to “off-shore” their operations.  Tax havens have been shut down, tax-dodgers have been prosecuted, and for the first time in memory, America actually collects all taxes legally owed by its citizens (something thought impossible back in the 2020’s).

Worldwide trade has been enhanced, and American goods are sold throughout the planet.  Health care costs have declined (see below) and a healthier, more invigorated work force is more productive.  An expanded minimum wage has put more dollars into the hands of workers, where the multiplier effect of those dollars produces far more growth than the previous process of enhancing the wealth of corporate owners, where dollars were used primarily for stock buy-backs, yachts, and vanity space ships (see Musk, Elon).

Worst case: As America’s deficit has spiraled, attempts by government to deal with it have grown more desperate.  The KAA’s ten-year tax rescue plan, which mandates that tax rates must be lowered by 3% every ten years, has not produced the economic growth the KAA insisted would occur.  Instead, unemployment has reached 15%, poverty is at an all-time high, and what little is left of what was once called the “social safety net” has vanished.

Despite eliminating Medicare, Medicaid, and social security, spending continues to outstrip declining revenues.  This has led the KAA to institute further tax cuts, arguing that business will grow, employment will improve, and revenues will thus be enhanced (what was once called “supply side economics”).  Unfortunately, this has not proven to be the case.

Business has been further compromised by the massive tariffs the KAA has imposed on at least 40 countries that the KAA insists have not respected America.  The tariffs, along with the threat to use the U.S. Military against violators, has caused world trade with America to plumet.  This has led to increased prices for many goods here at home, and further increased poverty and economic decline.

To counteract this, the KAA has pledged to decrease taxes once again next year.  But other than the ten American trillionaires, few others expect this to improve America’s debt-ridden situation.

WHAT WILL BE THE STATE OF NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POLITICS?

Best case:  Although it would shock anyone from twenty years ago, American politics have moved from the extreme to a more reasonable center.  Ranked choice voting, open primaries, and a not-infrequent shifting of party loyalties have produced an environment in which over 70% of all bills have passed Congress with bipartisan approval.

The 29^th Amendment, limiting Supreme Court Justices to two 8-year terms, has provided a greater diversity of legal opinion to prop the “third leg” of the American government.  Annual strategic planning sessions between majority and minority congressional leadership has led to unified goal setting and more effective government.

America is once again the model that the world looks to for government that works.

Regionally, pockets of intense political polarization continue to exist, but this is largely limited to the southeast and the west coast.  In Nebraska, for example, a wave of successful petition initiatives overturning more than a dozen Legislative bills apparently got the attention of officeholders.  Real (as opposed to token) public input now plays a much larger role in legislation.

The Redistricting Task Force, set up after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down seven highly partisan attempts at state gerrymandering, now approves Congressional redistricting on the basis of geography and demographics, rather than politics.  At both the state and federal level, this has led to an upsurge in voting, in contrast to 20 years ago, when the only votes that seemed to matter were limited to so-called “swing districts.”

Worst case:  Through a series of Supreme Court decisions upholding the creation of “virtual” districts, the KAA has been able to amass a Congressional supermajority, as well as the presidency for the past 20 years.  All 9 members of the Supreme Court have been appointed by KAA administrations, and KAA dominated states have regularly overturned elections, claiming they were rigged.  This has led to states such as Texas, Florida, and West Virginia getting the bulk of all federal aid programs, with California and New York experiencing significant cut-backs.

Although it is clear that a plurality of Americans do not support KAA policy, the party nonetheless holds power through gerrymandering, successful voter suppression, and an interventionist Supreme Court.  As much out of despair as anything else, voter participation has dropped to barely 20%.  The world, of course, sees all of this clearly, and wonders what has become of this former-democracy called America.

WHAT WILL HEALTH CARE LOOK LIKE?

Best case:  With the passage of the Health Care for All America (HCAA) act, basic coverage has become universal.  Americans are now paying less in health care taxes than they were previously paying in premiums and taxes combined.  Access has improved, and American life expectancy, declining for years earlier in the century, is now rising significantly.

The Act was initially opposed by many, as manifested by the 2-week doctors’ strike in Florida and Texas, but since that time public approval of the program has soared.  A few private companies sell supplemental policies to add benefits to standard programs, but by and large the power of private insurance to dictate health care has declined.  The 600,000 health insurance employees whose positions were eliminated in the conversion to the HCAA quickly found employment in a private sector that boomed when the costs of insurance premiums were removed from their gross revenues.

Business has expanded, the number of uninsured has dropped to near zero, and with access to primary care now available to all, the number of emergent procedures has declined significantly.  Other than a few CEO’s who had previously been paid multi-million-dollar salaries in the private insurance world, everyone agrees the current system is working exceptionally well.

Worst case:  Since the passage of the KAA sponsored “Liberty Vouchers” Act, which eliminated Medicare and Medicaid, the number of uninsured has risen significantly.  Currently, 75 million Americans have no health insurance, and a similar number have bare bones policies that simply aren’t enough to cover essential care.

This was not the legislation’s intent.  However, the voucher subsidies are fixed, and have not kept up with inflation.  Consequently, most elderly Americans claim the vouchers are essentially worthless, since they cover only a fraction of premium costs for available policies, and, they claim even these policies don’t provide the coverage of the old Medicare program.  Nonetheless, the KAA is adamant they won’t turn back to a socialist program like Medicare.

Hospitals in inner city and rural areas continue to close, as available revenues dry up due to uninsured patients.  Doctors continue to preferentially practice in suburban areas, where reimbursement is highest.  Despite KAA assurances that things will improve, American life expectancy continues to plummet.

One area is doing well though—private health insurance.  United Health Care’s 2048 profits exceeded $100 billion, and the NFL now awards the United Health Care trophy to the winning Super Bowl team.

WHAT WILL IMMIGRATION LOOK LIKE?

Best Case:  Although applications for immigration still exceed available vacancies, the applicant number has decreased.  Illegal border crossings have diminished as the U.S. has helped rebuild Central American economies.  America has helped lead the International Refugee Board, which seeks to provide a rational approach to immigration world-wide.  With increasing climate disasters, the number of displaced persons in the world has risen to nearly 200 million. However, using world-wide resources, this population is being resettled in the most effective way possible.

Although initially opposed by many as too expensive, the Central American Partnership Plan, which has modernized Central American police forces and boosted employment, has led to a significant improvement in the standard of living in those respective countries.  Everyone now agrees this was money well spent. Clearly, it has brought about a reduction in those seeking to immigrate from those countries.

As has been the case for over 200 years, immigrants have been assimilated into American society and workforce.  They now contribute more to the social security trust fund than native born Americans, and first-generation immigrants are recognized as among the most patriotic of all Americans.

Worst case:  Since the KAA shut down legal immigration for all non-European immigrants, the number of people seeking to enter the U.S. from the southern border has skyrocketed.  Despite a declining workforce and pleas from American business, the KAA is adamant that immigration must be halted.

What was previously known as “replacement theory” has formed the backbone of American policy.  Though it’s not official, statistics are clear that Black and Hispanic immigrants are more likely to be deported than those from European origin.

The unfortunate incident last month at the southern border when border patrol officers opened fire on border crossers and inadvertently shot 3 Mexican soldiers has led to a deterioration in our relationship with our southern neighbor.  The announcement that Mexico has shut down its own border crossings in reprisal for the shootings, along with the loss of cross-border trade, has been a crushing blow to American industry.  The report that Mexico has signed a priority trade agreement with China in retaliation for our immigration shutdown has rocked the world. 

Where all of this will end is anybody’s guess.

BOTTOM LINE:  Will any of this happen?  Will none of it?  Are these scenarios too dark or too rosy?  Who knows?

Feel free to make your own predictions and then discuss them with others.  Think about ways we can move toward the common good, and avoid the outright disastrous.  Not that any of this will affect me personally.  In 2050, in the unlikely event I’m still around, I’ll be 98.  But how all of this will affect my children, grandchildren, and the world I love is a different story.

And if you think any of these scenarios seems too improbable, remember this:  What were you thinking in 1998?  What were you doing?  What were you envisioning?  Could you have foreseen the changes that have occurred in our country?  The radical Supreme Court decisions?  The normalization of mass shootings?  The rise in authoritarian governments in countries that had previously been democratic?

Probably not.  All the more reason to consider where we are as a nation, where we are headed, and how we must change course.

And all the more reason to talk about it.