COVID AT THREE YEARS: SEPERATING FACT FROM FANTASY
Three years ago this month, I was on an Amtrak passenger train pulling out of Vancouver, Canada, headed toward Seattle, Washington. The eight cars had more train crew than riders. We didn’t know it then, but it would be the last train out of Canada for the next 2 and a half years.
The COVID-19 pandemic was just beginning to body-slam the world.
Today, 16 million deaths later (over 1.1 million in America alone), the world is in a much different place. What have we learned about the disease, and what have we failed to learn? Maybe more importantly, what have we learned about ourselves?
From the outset, COVID was politicized, dismissed, scapegoated, subjected to blatant science-denial, and used as an excuse for Americans to despise and threaten one another. Any other time in our nation’s history, COVID would have been a reason for Americans to put differences aside and come together as a nation to fight this threat.
Instead, twenty years into the supposedly enlightened and advanced twenty first century, it ripped us apart. It made us weaker, dumber, more inwardly focused, and frankly more vulnerable to our enemies than at any time in years. Our response—or lack of one—led to the highest COVID mortality rate in the developed world. If we’re looking for someone to blame, forget about government, China, public health, or the medical profession.
Instead, we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
Someday, volumes will be written about the pandemic. But for now, let’s focus on where we stand today, and try to separate truth from fiction. Let’s start with some basic questions and answers.
“Three years? Lockdowns, masks, vaccines, cancellations? When is this thing finally going to be over?”
Answer: Probably never. Everyone who thought that we should just “let nature take its course” and quickly achieve “herd immunity” was wrong. Everyone who thought just getting vaccinated would be enough to make you immune forever was wrong. We were all wrong. It turns out this virus mutates like crazy. It’s now endemic, like influenza (although a lot deadlier). The best we can hope for is an annual vaccination, like the influenza shot, that will boost immunity year-to-year and save lives.
“But vaccines don’t work! I know people who got all kinds of shots and still caught the virus!”
Answer: There’s nothing magic about vaccines. They simply boost the body’s immune response to enable it to produce antibodies more quickly when the virus does strike. The same is true with an actual infection—if you survive, you will have some degree of immunity from the infection, too. But that immunity will wane. From what we’ve seen so far, those who have both had the vaccine and been infected have the highest level of antibodies. But even they may get it again.
From a personal standpoint, I’ve been vaccinated, boosted, and received the bi-valent booster. I still came down with COVID. I had a fever for less than 24 hours, was knocked on my butt for a couple of days, but otherwise that was it. A friend said “so the vaccine didn’t keep you from getting it?” No, I responded, it didn’t keep me from getting it. It just kept me out of the cemetery.
“So some people get the vaccine and still die, right.”
Answer: Yes. Like I said, vaccines aren’t magic. But the protection is significant. At the present time, over 300 Americans are dying each day from COVID. The death rate is four times higher in those who haven’t been vaccinated.
“But the vaccine is killing people! You hear that everywhere!”
Answer: No, not everywhere. Just from unreliable news sources. But it’s an example of the kind of misinformation that’s still out there. Here are the facts: Some patients, usually younger males, have developed a temporary inflammation of the heart muscle called myocarditis. The risk is far less than the risk of getting myocarditis from the disease itself. Have any patients died from the vaccine? Throughout the world, with over 13 billion doses of the vaccine administered, a total of 4 deaths are thought to possibly be linked to vaccine-related myocarditis. That’s in contrast to a documented 6.7 million deaths (some think it’s closer to twice that many) from the disease itself.
You’re more likely to get hit by an asteroid than die from a vaccine complication. COVID itself, obviously, is a different story.
“OK, but this whole thing is still a joke. It’s really no worse than the flu!”
Answer: Yes, it is. Depending on the year, between 10,000 and 50,000 Americans die from influenza. Last year, 270,000 died from COVID. It’s not “just the flu.”
“Fine, but what about masks? The government has no right to tell me to wear a mask. That’s communism!”
Answer: No, it’s not communism. It’s no different than speed-limits or laws that say you can’t walk around town naked. But I’ve already written about that here , haven’t I? And along with it, an explanation as to why masks weren’t initially recommended (only social distancing) but later were found to be worthwhile. That’s the great thing about links. You don’t have to write it again. Just click and go back and read it.
“But they don’t work. They did this big study over in England that proved masks were worthless!”
Answer: What you’re talking about was an analysis done by the Cochrane Library. It wasn’t a study, and it really didn’t prove much of anything. It tried to evaluate evidence of how physical interventions (masks, handwashing, nose drops, even the colloidal silver that charlatans like Alex Jones sell) affect the transmission of respiratory viruses in general.
What Cochrane does is analyze what are called “controlled trials.” That is, studies that look at what happens when half of a group does one thing (like take a blue pill) and the other half does something else (like take a green pill). That’s easy to do when you can watch people actually take a pill.
But what about masks? You can’t follow people around all day. So any comparison is pretty suspect from the git go. Plus of the 85 or so studies where the researchers tried to control the groups, only two had anything to do with COVID and masks. And both showed results that leaned toward benefit from masking.
The rest of the studies looked at viral transmission in general—influenza, the “cold,” etc. The bottom line was that none of the studies were really controlled well enough to tell much of anything. But none of them said masks “didn’t work.”
But we have plenty of other evidence that they do indeed work. Numerous studies have shown reduced transmissions when masks are worn. Others showed that where masking was abruptly dropped, COVID cases increased. Just like vaccines, masks aren’t magic. All they do is form a barrier between someone’s lungs and the outside world, and can only reduce the particles going in or out.
But if you really don’t think a barrier is that important, let me ask you this: the next time I’m standing next to you, and have to cough, do you want me to cover my mouth, or can I just cough straight in your face? After all, if you don’t think a mask works, then just covering my mouth with my hand or a crook in my elbow isn’t going to do anything either, right? So it shouldn’t be a problem if I sneeze right in your face?
“Smart-Ass! That’s different!”
Answer: No, actually it’s not.
“But don’t change the subject. I heard that Controlled-Studies are the gold-standard in Medicine. So you’re telling me you don’t really have any controlled studies that prove masks work?
Answer: No, we really don’t. We just have plenty of other evidence, but controlled trials are going to be difficult to reliably perform.
But imagine this—you’re in a car wreck, you wind up with your arm ripped off, and you’re lying in a ditch bleeding to death. I just happen to see you, slam on my brakes, jump out of my car, and try to put a tourniquet on your arm to stop the bleeding.
But before I do, are you going to look up at me and say, “Wait a minute, Doc! Do you have any controlled trials that prove tourniquets work?”
Because if you ask me that, I’ll have to admit, “No, we’ve never done a controlled trial. We’ve never taken a hundred people, chopped their arms off, put a tourniquet on half of them and no tourniquet on the other half, and proved that tourniquets work. But we have a lot of other evidence that shows they do.”
If I said that, would you let me use the tourniquet, or would you tell me that since there weren’t any controlled trials, I should just get lost?
“You really are a smart-ass, aren’t you? But how about Fauci, China, the CDC, and all the other science crap I don’t trust? How about that?
Answer: You’re right about the smart-ass part, but that’s beside the point. I’ll have plenty to say about those other things later, but we’re out of space. See you next time.
Another great post, Don. Excellent writing, and poignant and engrossing. As well as factual.
Thanks Josh. Here’s hoping the country’s
Earned something from all of this.
Right on. Thanks, Davey
Thank you Allison.
Don, as usual, funny, informed and easy to read. Sadly, it probably won’t inform or enlighten those who still think nano tracking devices were inserted into the vaccines!
Thank you Steve. Can’t be too careful with nanoparticles, you know!
Interesting read….helps me with my comeback to anti vaccines.
Hi Beth. Really sad that there are still folks out there who buy into this stuff, but they do I guess. Hope you’re doing well.
Don
Interesting read. Helps me with my comeback to anti virus souls
Thank you Don for boiling down a lot of information to a digestable understandable quantity. I know that takes a lot of work. You are like Brooks and Capehart on PBS. I know the far right people who listen to mostly Fox News will differ but data and common sense wins eventually.
Thank you Chuck. I hope you’re right. All we can do is keep telling the truth.
Dr Frey,
Yep another great, easy read! Thank you… i am passing on to spread your facts/myths/words! I feel sometimes people refuse to comprehend until “whatever” hits home…. family/friends die, get shot, overdose, are homeless….
I continue to learn and share your posting,
With love and gratitude always,
Terry Fidler
Thank you Terry. We miss seeing you. Fingers crossed for the Royals this season. Spring training so far has looked fairly good.
Good perspective Don. Hope you are doing well. Chris
Thank you Chris. Yes, doing fine. Been to any Jimmy Buffet concerts recently?
Very good and easy to read with humor to make the science more understandable for those that want to learn. Unfortunately there are still 30-40% that this threatens for some reason. When will we remember the greater good and forget about just me.
Thanks Joe. I don’t know what people are thinking either. From the days when my Mother took me to a Baptist Sunday School I remember the verse “Do unto others as you would have others do unto you.” I still haven’t found that verse that says “Do first unto your own sense of ego and personal freedom, and unto others only if you absolutely have to.”
Great job Don!
Thank you, Bob. Hopefully one day this won’t be an issue, but I’m not optimistic.
Everyone dies from something. Depending on your beliefs, you might even believe a death was a premature death. But there is no way to prove that. Too many people unnecessarily fear death. It is a fact of life everyone will die. And to many, it is much more important and satisfying how they live their life rather than when and how they died. Does that mean for those who believe such things they should just go out and commit suicide? Not hardly. For those who want to live so desperately, shouldn’t they live in isolation in a sterile area never interacting with anything/body to maximize their lives? Great information in this post. Some will use it, some will not. Many have and still condemn those who do not take all the suggested cautions. But it’s all about personal preference on how one wishes to live their life. And spending more time on the covid arguments and listening to the blame game seems a counter productive way to live a happy and satisfying life. If Heaven is such a great place, why is anybody delaying or being afraid to get there? Is the best thing that can happen to you waking up in the morning?
Thank you, Dan. You’ve presented some philosophical issues which I’m having some difficulty relating to, because I’m not much of a philosopher. I agree people should be free to live their lives as much as possible and take their own individual risks. But what about exposing others to those risks? Should people be free to drive as fast as they want past a school zone? Should they be free to walk around town naked? What about a temporary mask mandate? Is it similar to those laws, or more like laws that say women must be covered from head to toe, as is the case in some countries? To me, it’s more like the former. Ordering people to walk around in Hazmat suits would be more like the latter. That was never mandated.
I realize that there are some who see this as an all or none issue—that is, a mask requirement is no different from a requirement that no one can leave their house for months on end (as was the case in China). I’m not saying that’s your belief, it’s just that I’ve heard this from other folks. I think this flies in the face of common sense. Covering your mouth and nose with a mask during a pandemic doesn’t strike me as a huge burden. It seems more like covering your mouth and nose with your arm when you sneeze or cough during a non-pandemic—an act of common courtesy that shouldn’t require a mandate. Sadly, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
In any case just my thoughts. As far as people wanting to go to heaven, or getting their slowly or quickly, that’s way above my pay grade. But my thoughts are more in line with those of Will Rogers: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where thy went.”
Just out of curiosity, why don’t you discuss types of masks? It matters doesn’t it? Each makes their own decisions on how they wish to live their life. I don’t speed and don’t particularity appreciate those who do. Although I always try to remember, they may be on their way to the hospital with a medical emergency. There is nothing I can do about the actions of others. Only myself and those I love. I love philosophy and stats and facts. Especially philosophy on life and living. When one accepts death is inevitable but doesn’t know when, it affects how one lives their life. I do go to all my doctors appointments and take all my meds. I do mourn the loss of life. And SMH when it happens because one didn’t follow the rules or law. 71 years old and my wife is right behind me. Took the first covid vaccine so I could attend my grandchildren’s school functions. Only wore a mask when mandated too. Scoffed at those who wore cloth masks and then those who criticized others who wore none.Take all my lawfully mandated vaccines. Lawfully being those mandated by legislative action. If these vaccines are so important, like flu etc, why have they not even be debated, especially prior to 2022, to be mandated by Congress? Why are they not now even being considered by Congress or any other deliberative body with a good reputation to be mandated? Evidently they aren’t that important to those elected to protect us. Worked as a Air Traffic Controller for 25 years for the FAA. which is all abut safety we are told. So for the executive branch, wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them. Neither my wife nor I ever had covid that we kn ow of. Wore masks only when mandated too. Believed wearing cloth masks was delusional and made no sense. Why didn’t the government tell us about they’re lack of protection sooner in the process? From what I see, the argument of “you take other vaccines why not covid” is irrational. There is little that covid vaccines and other vaccines have in common. From how they are made and what they are made of. How they were validated. A long history of use and study. It is true all vaccines had to have a start. And those who were there dealt with them in their own way. I thank them for their sacrifice. Same as for those who sacrificed so my doctors learned how to do by pass surgery, safely. I’m not sure, but many of the vaccines probably didn’t have a highly politicized CDC and FDA approving them and saying they are just fine. Have relatives with many comorbidity issues that lived through covid. Not always pleasantly. Know of very few who didn’t. Over 3.4 million Americans die each year. Heart disease: 695,547. None of my male forefathers lived beyond their 60s until the last two years when my brother and I did. So what’s to say I shouldn’t fear heart disease the most? I follow almost all my doctors restrictions. But someone has to remove the snow and kids are not as inclined to work as much as before. Fentanyl deaths are sky rocketing. What’s so special about covid? At this point and time, I don’t believe covid is as big a threat as some believe it is. Although I do respect the opinion of doctors I know or know about. And my most personal ones respect my ability to make the best decision for myself. Bottom line, the government has not taken the action necessary to actually support their politicized fear of covid. The covid vaccines have little if anything in common with all the other vaccines I take that would indicate they are just as effective and safe. At 71, I really don’t have the time or desire to find out how bad they maybe for one in the future. If I die from covid, you can post I told you so and no hard feelings.
As a side rabbit hole. Having a Sec of Trans and maybe an Administrator of the FAA with no experience in either field, is truly tempting fate and putting peoples lives in danger for the sake of diversity. The safety flying issues, and worse, you see today have been around for decades. Much better men and women than bidens leadership picks have worked on the problems. The one safety thing you can’t fix, human involvement in the system. Stuff happens.
Hi Dan. Here’s my take on your questions/thoughts. I didn’t discuss types of masks because they’ve been in the news since the onset of COVID. Anyone unaware of the differences either isn’t paying attention, or just doesn’t want to know. I don’t think I could add anything to that.
I’m not sure what you mean by “legislative action” on vaccines. I know you disagree, but I’m not interested in any legislative body trying to practice medicine. I’m aware of how misinformation has stirred up distrust of the CDC and FDA, but to be fair, my experience has been that the public trusts them more than they trust Congress, which most Americans don’t exactly consider “a deliberative body with a good reputation.” But if you want to disagree, be my guest.
I also don’t know about your issue with COVID vaccines. There are multiple types. The RNA modalities are the most effective. Their safety has been established. Do we wait 10 years, 20 years, 100 years before using them? The answer is we follow the evidence, which was done in the instance of COVID. The outcomes speak for themselves. There’s nothing “irrational” about it. They work in much the same way as other vaccines, all of which are different. And all of which, regrettably, have been the subject of similar misinformation, dating back to the days of George Washington as I’ve previously mentioned in the third and fifth posts on this blog.
Certainly, feel free to comment on those if you’d like. I’ve got thick skin.
In terms of killing people, you’re right, there’s “nothing special about COVID.” If it kills you, you’re just as dead as if you die from a Fentanyl overdose. But it’s illogical to use either one as a basis to discount the other, just as it would be illogical to use COVID deaths to discount the issue of heart disease, or vaccine hesitancy to discount treating high blood pressure.
If you die of COVID, I won’t post “I told you so,” any more than I would post about any other cause of death. We all will die. That is certain. If you or I die from heart disease, that involves each of us alone. But if we die of COVID, there’s the possibility that we transmitted it to someone (possibly more vulnerable than us) who’ll also die. That may not be important to some people, but it is to me.
Thanks, Dan. Don
Dr. Frey,
I am so grateful for your words and appreciate your straightforward perspective. Thank you for this!
Amy
Thank you, Amy. And a special thanks to the entire Department of Family Medicine at Creighton for their work on the frontlines in combatting this virus.
Good post
thank you, Andrea. I sure miss working with old VP crew. Hope everyone is well.