COVID AT THREE YEARS: SEPERATING FACT FROM FANTASY
Three years ago this month, I was on an Amtrak passenger train pulling out of Vancouver, Canada, headed toward Seattle, Washington. The eight cars had more train crew than riders. We didn’t know it then, but it would be the last train out of Canada for the next 2 and a half years.
The COVID-19 pandemic was just beginning to body-slam the world.
Today, 16 million deaths later (over 1.1 million in America alone), the world is in a much different place. What have we learned about the disease, and what have we failed to learn? Maybe more importantly, what have we learned about ourselves?
From the outset, COVID was politicized, dismissed, scapegoated, subjected to blatant science-denial, and used as an excuse for Americans to despise and threaten one another. Any other time in our nation’s history, COVID would have been a reason for Americans to put differences aside and come together as a nation to fight this threat.
Instead, twenty years into the supposedly enlightened and advanced twenty first century, it ripped us apart. It made us weaker, dumber, more inwardly focused, and frankly more vulnerable to our enemies than at any time in years. Our response—or lack of one—led to the highest COVID mortality rate in the developed world. If we’re looking for someone to blame, forget about government, China, public health, or the medical profession.
Instead, we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
Someday, volumes will be written about the pandemic. But for now, let’s focus on where we stand today, and try to separate truth from fiction. Let’s start with some basic questions and answers.
“Three years? Lockdowns, masks, vaccines, cancellations? When is this thing finally going to be over?”
Answer: Probably never. Everyone who thought that we should just “let nature take its course” and quickly achieve “herd immunity” was wrong. Everyone who thought just getting vaccinated would be enough to make you immune forever was wrong. We were all wrong. It turns out this virus mutates like crazy. It’s now endemic, like influenza (although a lot deadlier). The best we can hope for is an annual vaccination, like the influenza shot, that will boost immunity year-to-year and save lives.
“But vaccines don’t work! I know people who got all kinds of shots and still caught the virus!”
Answer: There’s nothing magic about vaccines. They simply boost the body’s immune response to enable it to produce antibodies more quickly when the virus does strike. The same is true with an actual infection—if you survive, you will have some degree of immunity from the infection, too. But that immunity will wane. From what we’ve seen so far, those who have both had the vaccine and been infected have the highest level of antibodies. But even they may get it again.
From a personal standpoint, I’ve been vaccinated, boosted, and received the bi-valent booster. I still came down with COVID. I had a fever for less than 24 hours, was knocked on my butt for a couple of days, but otherwise that was it. A friend said “so the vaccine didn’t keep you from getting it?” No, I responded, it didn’t keep me from getting it. It just kept me out of the cemetery.
“So some people get the vaccine and still die, right.”
Answer: Yes. Like I said, vaccines aren’t magic. But the protection is significant. At the present time, over 300 Americans are dying each day from COVID. The death rate is four times higher in those who haven’t been vaccinated.
“But the vaccine is killing people! You hear that everywhere!”
Answer: No, not everywhere. Just from unreliable news sources. But it’s an example of the kind of misinformation that’s still out there. Here are the facts: Some patients, usually younger males, have developed a temporary inflammation of the heart muscle called myocarditis. The risk is far less than the risk of getting myocarditis from the disease itself. Have any patients died from the vaccine? Throughout the world, with over 13 billion doses of the vaccine administered, a total of 4 deaths are thought to possibly be linked to vaccine-related myocarditis. That’s in contrast to a documented 6.7 million deaths (some think it’s closer to twice that many) from the disease itself.
You’re more likely to get hit by an asteroid than die from a vaccine complication. COVID itself, obviously, is a different story.
“OK, but this whole thing is still a joke. It’s really no worse than the flu!”
Answer: Yes, it is. Depending on the year, between 10,000 and 50,000 Americans die from influenza. Last year, 270,000 died from COVID. It’s not “just the flu.”
“Fine, but what about masks? The government has no right to tell me to wear a mask. That’s communism!”
Answer: No, it’s not communism. It’s no different than speed-limits or laws that say you can’t walk around town naked. But I’ve already written about that here , haven’t I? And along with it, an explanation as to why masks weren’t initially recommended (only social distancing) but later were found to be worthwhile. That’s the great thing about links. You don’t have to write it again. Just click and go back and read it.
“But they don’t work. They did this big study over in England that proved masks were worthless!”
Answer: What you’re talking about was an analysis done by the Cochrane Library. It wasn’t a study, and it really didn’t prove much of anything. It tried to evaluate evidence of how physical interventions (masks, handwashing, nose drops, even the colloidal silver that charlatans like Alex Jones sell) affect the transmission of respiratory viruses in general.
What Cochrane does is analyze what are called “controlled trials.” That is, studies that look at what happens when half of a group does one thing (like take a blue pill) and the other half does something else (like take a green pill). That’s easy to do when you can watch people actually take a pill.
But what about masks? You can’t follow people around all day. So any comparison is pretty suspect from the git go. Plus of the 85 or so studies where the researchers tried to control the groups, only two had anything to do with COVID and masks. And both showed results that leaned toward benefit from masking.
The rest of the studies looked at viral transmission in general—influenza, the “cold,” etc. The bottom line was that none of the studies were really controlled well enough to tell much of anything. But none of them said masks “didn’t work.”
But we have plenty of other evidence that they do indeed work. Numerous studies have shown reduced transmissions when masks are worn. Others showed that where masking was abruptly dropped, COVID cases increased. Just like vaccines, masks aren’t magic. All they do is form a barrier between someone’s lungs and the outside world, and can only reduce the particles going in or out.
But if you really don’t think a barrier is that important, let me ask you this: the next time I’m standing next to you, and have to cough, do you want me to cover my mouth, or can I just cough straight in your face? After all, if you don’t think a mask works, then just covering my mouth with my hand or a crook in my elbow isn’t going to do anything either, right? So it shouldn’t be a problem if I sneeze right in your face?
“Smart-Ass! That’s different!”
Answer: No, actually it’s not.
“But don’t change the subject. I heard that Controlled-Studies are the gold-standard in Medicine. So you’re telling me you don’t really have any controlled studies that prove masks work?
Answer: No, we really don’t. We just have plenty of other evidence, but controlled trials are going to be difficult to reliably perform.
But imagine this—you’re in a car wreck, you wind up with your arm ripped off, and you’re lying in a ditch bleeding to death. I just happen to see you, slam on my brakes, jump out of my car, and try to put a tourniquet on your arm to stop the bleeding.
But before I do, are you going to look up at me and say, “Wait a minute, Doc! Do you have any controlled trials that prove tourniquets work?”
Because if you ask me that, I’ll have to admit, “No, we’ve never done a controlled trial. We’ve never taken a hundred people, chopped their arms off, put a tourniquet on half of them and no tourniquet on the other half, and proved that tourniquets work. But we have a lot of other evidence that shows they do.”
If I said that, would you let me use the tourniquet, or would you tell me that since there weren’t any controlled trials, I should just get lost?
“You really are a smart-ass, aren’t you? But how about Fauci, China, the CDC, and all the other science crap I don’t trust? How about that?
Answer: You’re right about the smart-ass part, but that’s beside the point. I’ll have plenty to say about those other things later, but we’re out of space. See you next time.